“Simply put, our economy is strong, unemployment is at a 50-year low, household income is at a 20-year high, consumer sentiment is near record highs, and corporate earnings continue to impress.” http://www.Zacks.com
Q: So what went wrong?
A: The Coronavirus
The stock market does not like uncertainty, especially uncertainty centers around a question like, “How bad can it get?” More and more experts and market pundits are answering that question with some variation of “Pretty bad?”
While numbers of cases and deaths are really small compared to most annual flu outbreaks, the reaction has been much more radical. Deaths as a percentage of reported infections are relatively high, and with no known cure or vaccine on the horizon many are starting to use the “Pandemic” word. While we have heard of factory closings and quarantines in China, Italy with just 10 deaths reported so far, has quarantined whole towns, cancelled or closed schools, museums, football games etc.
El-Erian, legendary market sage at PIMCO said back at the beginning of February that the coronavirus is going to “paralyze China,” adding that it will “cascade throughout the global economy.” He has been proven right. On Monday he added on CNBC that disruptions from “Shock” events tend to take time to work through the economy. Not the best support when the DOW is dropping 1000 points.
What is Fund Trader Pro’s take?
What we know is that the U S and other countries may soon feel the pinch of a shortage of many products as Chinese production is shut down. Apple and P&G have already warned of an impact to earnings.
Troubling news this week indicates a vaccine is at least months away and could be ineffective.
Quarantines/shutdowns in the U S would be crippling to our economy.
But….
The rebound from pent-up demand could be huge. The caveat to this, which is a big caveat is that the coronavirus could be just the start of an economic snowball. A strong economy can cover many blemishes, the warts will come out if employment is affected.
In other words, we just don’t know. False alarm that blows over or global pandemic? Flip a coin.
Faced with uncertainty we are currently recommending that 401k investors decease their equity exposure. Take 20% to 50% of your holdings and make sure they are already in, or move them to a safe holding. (For our FundTraderPro.com subscribers you will get specific sell and buy recommendations).
At 401 Advisor, LLC we are evaluating and making changes to our holdings as we see necessary. We are very comfortable with holding onto our dividend generating securities, but will continue to look for opportunities to raise cash.
Mr. DeShurko is the Managing Member of 401 Advisor, LLC an independent registered investment advisor. Jim Kilgore is an Investment Advisor Representative of 401 Advisor, LLC. They are also registered representatives of Ceros Financial Services, Inc. (Member FINRA/SIPC). Ceros is not affiliated with 401 Advisor. The views expressed are those of Mr. DeShurko and do not necessarily reflect those of Ceros Financial Services, Inc., its employees or affiliates.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. There is no guarantee that any investment or strategy will generate a profit or prevent a loss.
I love statistics. My favorite book is “Money Ball” by Michael Lewis about how Billy Beane turned around the Oakland A’s baseball team with the help of Paul DePodesta. The two combined to rethink how to evaluate talent – removing the “gut feel” of a scout and replacing it with a new look at the performance statistics that really mattered. Since their system came up with different attributes than most other talent evaluators, they were able to acquire good players “on the cheap”. His team did make it to the American League Championship game, but not to the World Series. But it was still quite a turn around.
But to the point, one thing that Money Ball highlighted is that statistics, by themselves don’t suggest a course of action. Statistics need to be interpreted. What is important or relevant is most times open to debate and still subject to human bias. Thus the interpretation that statistics (and I will qualify with misused statics) are nothing more than damned lies!
For the past several years, and especially last year the financial media and talking heads insist on talking down the economy and raising the specter of the imminent recession/market crash. Had an investor listened, they would have missed out on one of the best years ever in terms of the S&P 500’s return. Despite my more paranoid nature, we stayed pretty much invested throughout the year. I attribute this decision to focusing on the statistics that matter to the market and ignoring those that don’t.
One example is debt. And in this case, I am only talking about consumer debt. Analysts spend a lot of time talking about the volume of debt. With debt levels at record highs, a recession is most certainly around the corner. Instead they should be talking about the number of dollars consumers spend on servicing the debt. And only then, in relation to the dollars available to make those payments. Debt does not become an economy wide problem unless increasing numbers of people can’t make their payments. Below is a graph from the St. Louis Federal Reserve that shows the historic amount of household debt payments as a percentage of disposable income (after tax income).
While the percentage is rising, it is currently near an average level of the last 40 years or so and well below pre financial crisis and tech wreck levels.
What this tells me is that the consumer is pretty healthy. The economy is still nearly 70% consumer driven, and the consumer relies on debt. Debt servicing payments have room to grow, especially if incomes continue to rise.
What Does Matter?
The corollary to the debt is too high argument is that, if interest rates increase rapidly debt service costs will rise and the graph above could start looking ugly soon. Yes, and if monkeys start falling from the skies. I grew up in the 1970’s, the years of double-digit inflation, (inflation is what drives interest rates higher). 90% of economic thought at the time revolved around inflation. Inflation was talked about more than debt is today. I was schooled on inflation. I too am paranoid about the prospects for inflation. But guess what? It is just not on the horizon. Remember one phrase – global capacity utilization. There is just no price pressure on anything that can be manufactured overseas. Country of origin doesn’t matter. And the world is full of unemployed people that will work for a lot less than Americans. The Steve Jobs of the business world will continue to pay sustenance level wages to women and children around the world as long as a sustenance level wage is the only alternative to no wage.
Where we do see inflation is in services. Tradesmen are in high demand and so far, you can’t fly in a plumber from China to remodel the bathroom and then fly them home for less than the cost of the local plumber! But such services are still a small enough part of the overall economy that they haven’t had a major impact on the overall national numbers.
What are we Watching?
In addition to the graph above we have a systematic approach to looking at the economy. A non-emotional statistics driven flowchart of steps taken to interpret data. We look at things that history and economics say really matter. Things like money supply – the biggie! Not the yield curve that everyone else is obsessed with, but the forward yield curve and for the market it’s always all about future earnings.
As we have transitioned into a new calendar year remember too that 2020 is all but in the books for the stock market. While the election process is likely to cause more than normal volatility, the market’s focus has turned to 2021 and that crystal ball is still pretty hazy.
The best advice we offer, is the same advice: Make a plan and stick to it, that way you are not emotionally reacting to the story, and the bad statistics, of the day.
For a plan for your portfolio we are always here to help.
Bill DeShurko, President and Portfolio Manager
James Kilgore, CFP
Ofc: 937.434.1790 Bill@401Advisor.com or Jim@401Advisor.com
At 401 Advisor, we take great pride in making sure investors are aware of legislation that affects their retirement savings and we try to ensure we keep our clients informed in a timely fashion when changes are made that affect them. Recently a bipartisan bill was passed to help American’s save for retirement and it was signed by President Trump on 20 December 2019. The bill is called Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act and I would like to take a few moments to review some of the provisions that are designed to positively affect our ability to save for retirement. I will list below some of the items that apply to a broader group of people.
Removing maximum age limits on retirement savings, formerly capped at age 70 ½
Raising the required minimum distribution (RMD) age to 72 from 70 1/2.
Allowing penalty-free withdrawals up to $5,000 from retirement plans for the birth or adoption of a child
Relaxing rules on employers offering annuities through sponsored retirement plans
Allowing penalty-free withdrawals of up to $10,000 from 529 education-savings plans for the repayment of certain student loans
Revising components of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that raised taxes on benefits received by family members of deceased veterans, as well as students and some Native Americans
And to raise an estimated $15.7 billion to pay for these changes: removing the stretch IRA estate-planning strategy that permits non-spouse beneficiaries of IRAs to spread disbursements from the inherited money over their lifetime. The new limit will be within 10 years of the death of the original account holder
There are two provisions in here for people approaching retirement to pay close attention to. The first is the new rule allowing you to invest in your IRA until age 72 now. People are living longer and as a result are working longer. Before the new rule, you were prohibited from contributing to your IRA after age 70 ½ even if you were still working. Second, the bill changed the required beginning date of your RMD to 72. For the same reason, people are working longer and living longer and delaying the start date of your RMD’s give you a little more time to grow your nest egg before you have to start drawing from it.
So if you turn 70 ½ this year you DO NOT have to start taking your distributions this year. Now you can wait until 1 April following the year you turn 72. For example, if you turn 72 in July of 2020, you have until 1 April 2021 to take your first RMD.
We hope this information has been informative and as always If you have any further questions, don’t hesitate to call the office and ask one of us directly.
The free lunch in the saying refers to the 19th-century practice
in American bars of offering a “free lunch” to entice drinking
customers. Obviously, bars weren’t in the business of giving away their goods.
It simply occurred to them that giving away overly salted food was good for
their drink business!
Today’s free lunch, or dinner offers have moved from bars to
restaurants with financial advisors offering “Retirement Seminars” with pitches
for high commissioned investment products or “Estate Planning/Medicaid Planning”
with their canned documents that create illiquidity with irrevocable trusts and
annuities. I guess if you can resist the pitch there can be a free lunch or
dinner. But some poor attendee must be paying as my inbox is filling up with
emails from companies that offer canned seminar services “guaranteed to fill a
room”!
But I digress. While most people recognize the concept of TNSTAAFL when it comes to free offers, there seems no hesitancy to jump on board the free investment advice bandwagon. With interest rates falling to zero, market volatility on the upswing, and doom and gloom media still preaching recession. How long have they been saying that? I guess sooner or later, (my guess later they will be right, more on that next post). This is fertile ground for just bad investment advice as well as for outright scams.
So let me offer a couple of thoughts for self defense.
TNSTAAFL
Interest rates are fairly orderly. High interest rates accompany higher risk investments. Period. TNSTAAFL.
Remember can’t miss investments like 3D Printing? Did you get caught on the band wagon for this one? In January 2017 The Motley Fool was hyping 3D Systems (DDD) and Stratasys, LTD (SSYS). DDD opened 2017 at $13.63 a share, went as high as (using weekly data) $23.70 in May and is now down to $8.99. Not exactly a wealth builder. TNSTAAFL.
And how many of you, feeling the 401k might be a little shy of where it needs to be to fund that ideal retirement thought you’d get in at the bottom for “weed” stocks? Can’t even begin to name all the sources that were touting Cannabis as THE next big thing. Maybe you even decided to be prudent and go with the biggest provider from Canada, where there are no legality issues. Canopy Growth (CGC) opened on the NYSE on May of 2018 $25.78. Today (10/31/2019) it is trading at $20.06. Instead of money flowing to the legal producers, most pot sales are still of the illegal type as legal regulated pot can’t match the free market prices of the black market. TNSTAAFL.
In summary:
A corollary to TNSTAAFL is IISTGTBTIPI or If it seems to good to
be true it probably is.
For you to receive an interest rate return on your investment,
someone has to be paying that interest rate, plus a spread to pay the
middleman. No One pays a higher interest rate than they have to. High interest
rate = high risk. Period
Free investment advice is worth less than you pay for it. As in
if you lose money. By the time you hear about the next big thing, the smart
money has been made. The big boys are now looking to unload their shares to the
mass market to lock in their profits.
We never added weed stocks to our portfolios. We turned down client requests to even buy weed stocks. At 401 Advisor, LLC we have a pretty simple philosophy; there are plenty of companies that are making a profit, have been profitable and we expect to remain profitable. Their stocks do well. Why buy anything else?
If your interested in an investment portfolio based on sound principles give Jim or myself a call.
Mr.
DeShurko is the Managing Member of 401 Advisor, LLC an independent registered
investment advisor. Jim Kilgore is an Investment Advisor Representative of 401
Advisor, LLC. They are also registered
representatives of Ceros Financial Services, Inc. (Member FINRA/SIPC).
Ceros is not affiliated with 401 Advisor. The views expressed are those
of Mr. DeShurko and do not necessarily reflect those of Ceros Financial
Services, Inc., its employees or affiliates.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. There
is no guarantee that any investment or strategy will generate a profit or
prevent a loss.
One of the “deadliest” sayings in investing is “This time
it’s different”. Many investors and pundits, when faced with data contrary to
their current views will rationalize a position by saying those infamous words.
As they say as well, “history may not repeat, but it does rhyme.” While the big
picture may not repeat, policy decisions and market reactions do. Whether
interest rates are changing due to inflation fears, a slowing or accelerating
economy, macro dollar policy…the results are the same. Fed tightening (rising
interest rates) are never good for the market or the economy. Fed loosening
will (eventually) spark an economic boost. The why may change but not
the results.
The big picture is not pretty. July and August have been particularly
volatile. Volatility is a precursor to bad things to come more often then good.
The global economy is horrid with Japan, Germany and the rest of the Eurozone
slowing. China is slowing. The U S economy is slowing. Negative interest rates
are freaking out Wall Street. As we approach the 12-month point before the
election, Democratic rhetoric will pick up citing examples of how bad things
are. Trump will tweet back that America is Great Again! Volatility is unlikely
to subside. The trend is not an investors friend.
However, let’s put things into perspective.
First let’s look at volatility. Depending on one’s
predisposition volatility is just “Wall Street” and can be ignored, or it’s a
reason to run for the hills, or the proverbial mattress. Reality is in between
somewhere. Extreme volatility is not normal nor is it good. But by following
the daily gyrations (so you don’t have to) there are really two major causes of
the current volatility. The easiest to tackle is Trump v. China. China or Trump
threatens more tariffs and the market is down. Some hope for reconciliation and
the market rebounds. The last part being key and really the reason to hold off
making portfolio changes. I have no idea how this will play out. Best guess is
nothing overly substantial happens until we close in on election day. If Trump
looks to be leading strongly in the polls, China will cave. Their economy is
weakening. They don’t have elections, they have coups. And bottom line, they
are wrong. Nations that want to play with the big boys, must act like the big
boys. In hindsight, their admission to the World Trade Organization was
premature. They want to have high tariffs on imports and free access to the
world’s markets. They want to blackmail companies for their proprietary
information. China needs to play by the rules or be kicked back to second world
status on the world stage. Here are a couple of interesting articles on the
subject: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/sep/3/deceiving-sky-reveals-how-china-steals-tech-secret/
and here: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/digging-a-hole-to-china
But in the here and now, a trade war with China is not good
for our economy either. As we’re about to see, we are not near a recession. I’m
not even sure that all areas are slowing. With any positive economic news and a
softening on China, this market has a way to run on the upside. Our stance now
is that missing out on an upside move is a greater risk than riding out the
market volatility.
Below is a chart from www.econpi.com Moving counter clockwise the chart graphs economic data from EXPANSION, (top right quadrant) to DECLINE, CONTRACTION and then RECOVERY. There are only two things to look at. The RED box is the average or mean for all data tracked. It is right on the line between EXPANSION and DECLINE. The GREEN box labeled LD splits out the Leading Indicators, or the more predictive of the data tracked. LD is still in the EXPANSION Quad. The RED rectangle shows where the Mean of Coordinates (MoC), has been at the start of recent recessions. We have a long way to go to get to the recessionary point. All indicators are still well above their baseline, the horizontal line splitting the graph.
At the core of our portfolio management decision tree is “price”.
After a rough August most of our models would suggest moving to more
conservative holdings or to higher cash positions. We see this as premature. While many economic
indicators are in the DECLINE quadrant, most indicators are compared to year
ago stats to try and avoid month to month comparisons that are affected by
seasonality. Think back-to-school and Christmas for retail. Remember that a
year ago the economy got a big jolt from the Trump tax cuts. As the stimulus
wears off, we are naturally slowing down by comparison to 2018. Once we turn
the corner to 2020, comparisons will be to a much weaker 2019 and we’d expect
the market to react accordingly.
One last word on interest rates. Compared to the stock
market, the bond market is a much more orderly market. While there are several
variables that affect interest rates, one of the most prominent is risk. A
higher risk borrower must pay higher interest rates than a quality borrower.
The U S is still the largest and by far, the safest economy in the world. And
yet much of the world has lower interest rates than we do here in the U S. This
is putting undue pressure on our interest rates. An “inverted” yield curve is a
normal precursor to a recession. This time we can hope, is different. Market
rates are reacting to abnormal negative interest rates from abroad. If we
actually look to be headed for negative rates, all bets will be off. No one
knows what will happen then as there is no history to use as a reference.
To my retired veteran friends and friends of service-connected veterans,
If you are retired and receiving above 20% disability rating from the VA you have a possible tax refund due to you.
In 2016 the Department of Treasury updated IRS Publication 525 (specifically page 18 center column) which explains how retired veterans with a VA rating above 20% can recoup money deducted from their retirement pay. You can either google the publication or go to the IRS website https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p525.pdf. I will add the main points below, here’s what you need to know:
-You should already know your disability pay should not be taxed.
-If you are retired and receive 20% or more in disability pay, your retirement pay should not have been taxed at the standard rate.
-As an example: A retired veteran with a 70% rating should only have 30% of their retirement pay taxed.
-A retired veteran with a 90% rating should only have 10% of their retirement pay taxed.
-You are entitled to recoup that overage according to IRS Publication 525.
-The amount of your refund depends on your individual rating and of course your gross retirement pay.
-The statute of limitations is three years. Accountants can only go back to tax years 2015, 2016, and 2017. If you wait intil filing your 2019 taxes, you could lose the ability to get a refund for 2015. You need to act now.
– Adjustments MUST be mailed in and not electronically filed.
-State refunds will be faster than federal.
-Veterans will also receive interest on the money from those tax years.
-Provide your accountant or me with copies of your previous tax years (2015, 2016 and 2017); and a copy of the letter stating your VA rating and a copy of your dd214. This can be found on eBenefits at https://www.ebenefits.va.gov/ebenefits/homepage. Once logged on go to Manage tab at the top of the page > Documents and Records > VA Letter > Benefit Verification.
-Our refund is sanctioned through the IRS under IRS Publication 525, specifically pages 17-19.
– For the tax year 2018, and each one going forward, we are required to add the letter verifying your rating and mail the return to the IRS. That’s right; every year going forward retired veterans should get a return.
-A question was asked in the benefits briefing if HR Block or other tax prep companies know about this. When I called the IRS I was told she is among very few accountants/preparers calling to inquire about this benefit for veterans.
-I’ve given this information to several Veterans but several tax preparers are telling the Veteran they don’t qualify. Please don’t believe them!!!! Again, the prerequisite is retired and above 20%.
I want to stress that I know this sounds too good to be true but it is. Don’t automatically think you don’t qualify, don’t allow preparers who are not versed in IRS Pub 525 to tell you that you don’t qualify and please don’t leave this money on the table.
If you would like me to help you file your amended tax returns with the IRS, I will be happy to work with you to do so.
If you are a friend or relative of a veteran, don’t assume they are aware of this. One tax preparer we work with, and is familiar with this benefit says he is regularly filing amended returns for thousands of dollars in refunds.
For more information or assistance contact Jim at 937.434.1790 or Jim@401Advisor.com
As we head into the final month of summer, we head into Wall
Street’s traditional slow season. Statistically August and September are two of
the worst months of the year as traders partake in their annual migration to
the Hamptons. Add in questions
surrounding the strength of the economy and be prepared for the “Bears” to come
out with their stock market crash predictions.
However, computers running AI programs ripping off trades
that round trip in nano seconds, don’t take vacations. I’m not so sure that
their AI programmers accounted for tradition and have programmed in a slow
period just because the calendar has turned to August. I’d rather look at some
facts. And assume that whatever happens over the next couple of months, some
rationality will return in the fall to correct any excess over the next couple
of months, whether positive or negative.
The Market
A poplar talking point when election talk heats up, is that
the market is not the economy. While stock prices aren’t much of
an indicator, company earnings are. If businesses have strong
earnings, and expectations that future earnings growth will remain strong there
is little chance of an imminent recession, baring the infamous “Black Swan”
event, (something completely unforeseen at this time). If you have read this
blog or any of my writings prior, you are aware that earnings are everything
when it comes to stock valuation. While we use multiple resources for overall
money management, Zacks is my go-to for earnings reports and outlooks. Zacks
main investment thesis is that companies that beat expectations with their
earnings will see the greatest price appreciation. Earnings is their bread and
butter. They must be pretty good at it. So, what is Zacks saying about 2nd
quarter earnings? Remember the background here is that GDP came in at a tepid 2.1%
growth rate, albeit slightly above expectations.
From the www.zacks.com Earnings
Trend Report 7/24/2019 (subscription required):
While
most companies are beating estimates, the tone and substance of management
commentary is on the cautious side, with uncertainty about global trade a
notable headwind.
Total
earnings for the 138 S&P 500 members that have reported Q2 results already
are up +2.8% on +3.4% higher revenues, with 79.0% beating EPS estimates and
59.4% beating revenue estimates.
The
earnings and revenue growth pace for these 138 index members is unsurprisingly
very weak relative to other recent periods. The proportion of these index
members beating EPS estimates is about in-line with historical trends, but
positive revenue surprises are modestly on the low side.
I have two positive take aways from the report. First,
comparisons are to 2nd quarter 2018 when GDP came in at 3.!% boosted
by the Trump tax package. Seeing an earnings decline is not a surprise. 2. Much
of the current softness and expected 3rd quarter declines are being
attributed to the trade war with China. Transportation and large exporters like
Caterpillar have most definitely been affected. The positive? Most naysayers
were saying it would be much worse. Between the trade situation and the economy
facing a restrictive Fed for the first time in a decade, 2.1% growth was pretty
solid.
The Economy
Every week, every month, every year some entity is producing
some statistic that market pundits spend a day or two interpreting their
meaning in terms of the economy’s direction. Not only are we overwhelmed by the
shear number of statistics but determining what is actually predictive and what
is not keeps many an economist employed. My go-to for a quick look at the
economy is www.econpi.com
They take many of the most meaningful statistics and create
a “Mean of Coordinates” (MoC) indicator which is plotted weekly along with its
components. They also plot the Leading Indicators average. LD theoretically
pulls out only the economic statistics that show some predictive ability as
most indicators fall into the “hindsight is 20/20 category”. Finally, this is
all put together in a very nice and intuitive graph.
The most recent update from 7/26/2019 is below. You can go to their website for a complete explanation and historical graphs (no subscription required).
Each quad is labelled as to where each indicator lies in the
economic cycle. A quick look shows:
The red square MoC is in the decline quad –
meaning overall the indicators have been slowing. However, it is well above the
baseline, meaning the MoC is still showing growth above a baseline or average
level. It is well above the larger red rectangle that is labelled as to where
the MoC has been during the start of the last two recessions. This is
consistent with positive and modest GDP growth.
The Green LD box, the leading indicators is
still in the expansion quad. Meaning the forward-looking indicators are
still leaning toward further economic growth
What’s it All Mean?
As the saying goes, “Hope for the best, but prepare for the
worst”. While I don’t expect “the worst” I do expect volatility, primarily in
the wrong direction over the next few months. There is little chance of a trade
truce with China until after the 2020 election. The Chinese are hoping for a
Democratic win and hopes of a reversion to our old policies; remove tariff’s on
Chinese imports, while they maintain their tariff’s, illegal trade practices
and intellectual theft of our U S goods. There is potentially too much for
China to gain from a Democratic win to cave in to Trump now.
Economic indicators and earnings are both showing enough
strength to keep this expansion on track. Third quarter economic growth and
earnings will likely be anemic. Earnings may dip into negative growth
territory, but economic indicators should stay positive. If business outlook
turns positive for the fourth quarter expect a solid fourth quarter rally.
What is not being talked about, in terms of the affect on
our economy, is our debt. With interest payments rising to the second largest
category of Federal expenditures, our economy is being choked off by such a
large amount of unproductive spending. In addition, the lack of qualified labor
is further choking economic growth. This gets worse as more and more baby
boomers leave the work force with fewer unemployed willing to step into the
openings. Labor shortages in in transportation, retail and skilled trades are
very real.
Steps to Take
For 401k investors, definitely stay the course. But if you
are not using our service at www.FundTraderPro.com
or through our office www.401Advisor.com
do be aware, Fidelity and potentially other Target Date Fund providers have
gotten more aggressive in this rising market to capture more gains. Sounds ok except
last time they did this was prior to the 2008 – 2009 crash which resulted in
some large losses. When the “Pro’s” start doing what they say you shouldn’t do –
change your long-term strategy based on short term market conditions, then it
could be a sign to worry!
For other investors, now is the time to stress test the
portfolio. How is it likely to hold up if the market does crash? If you’re
currently an aggressive investor, it may be time to be more prudent and think of
the long term. No one ever went broke taking their profits!
Good luck and enjoy the rest of your summer. And for our
clients, relax while we watch the markets for you.
ffffffffffff
Being an Independent Investment Advisor means two things to me and to our clients. 1. We are required to act as Fiduciaries https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/fiduciary. on behalf of our clients, and 2. we have no product conflict of interests. Meaning we do not “sell” products where we could be compensated more for one product vs. another. We are also not told what to offer, or have anyone over us to establish quotas.
Most people I talk to assume this relationship exists between all investment advisors and their clients. Unfortunately that is not the industry standard.
First we have this communication to Fidelity account holders where Fidelity is “pleased to announce…” an opportunity to invest in a new offering by Tesla. Sounds good…
Until you discover this…
You see that Fidelity is dumping Tesla stock from their mutual funds, while simultaneously offering Tesla stock to their investors. Now that is a conflict of interest!
The lesson? If you truly want independent investment advice, find a truly independent investment advisor. Otherwise, the sad industry truth is that the retail investor in the brokerage world exists for the sole purpose of providing liquidity to the institutional clients.
Mr. DeShurko is the Managing Member of 401 Advisor, LLC an independent registered investment advisor. He is also a registered representative of Ceros Financial Services, Inc. (Member FINRA/SIPC). Ceros is not affiliated with 401 Advisor. The views expressed are those of Mr. DeShurko and do not necessarily reflect those of Ceros Financial Services, Inc., its employees or affiliates.
Past performance does not
guarantee future results. There is no guarantee that any investment or
strategy will generate a profit or prevent a loss.
Despite the media’s focus on negative news, things are really doing quite well. Hard for me to understand all the angst. We should be celebrating the great successes of our time. So this post is for all those that think the world is such an awful place today. Especially those that have said that today is no time to bring children into the world. Really?? I have a better idea, have kids, raise them right and let them find new solutions to the future’s problems. Oh, and by the way, college costs…a lot, so start planning early.
Below is a nice list of just how well off we are. Thanks Jim. Please feel free to comment.
By James Kilgore
1. For the first time in our nation’s history, there are more jobs than people looking for work. 2. Initial unemployment claims in March were below 200,000 for the first time since men walked on the moon. 3. Household net worth in the U.S. is $100 Trillion. 4. For 40 the forty years after WWII the U.S. was held hostage by imported oil. In 2018, the U.S. once again became the largest oil-producing country in the world. 5. 1,700 People per day become financial millionaires in the U.S. 6. In 1960 over half of the world population lived in extreme poverty, and the majority of humans were illiterate. Today those percentages are 10% and 15% respectively. 7. The iPhone in your child’s backpack contains more computing power than the Apollo 11 spacecraft. 8. In the next 24 hours, assuming this is a normal day on our planet, 217,000 will escape poverty, and 325,000 will have gained some access to electricity, 300,000 gained access to clean water, and 600,000 will have gotten on the internet for the first time.
Jim is an Investment Advisor at 401 Advisor, LLC and can be reached at Jim@401advisor.com or 937.434.1790.
How one should invest based on circumstances gets far too little attention. Whether investing periodically, like a payroll deducted 401k contribution; or the opposite, withdrawing payments on a regular basis to fund retirement or a college education; or if investing a single lump sum say from an inheritance or sale of a property or business; all require very different strategies.
Ellen Chang, writing for U. S. News and World Report wrote on the subject with 5 very different recommendations from five different advisors. My recommendation? Look for dividend paying investments. I know, that’s shocking! But lump sum investing incurs a specific market risk. Invest at a cyclical market high and it could take years to realize a competitive rate of return. While dividend paying stocks aren’t impervious to market sell-offs, dividends and specifically stocks of companies that have and are likely to continue to increase their dividends can help cushion market blows.
Bonus. While I personally would not recommend marijuana stocks for a significant lump sum, there is a nice section on them. Since I do get questions about the pot stocks, but don’t follow or recommend them, those that are interested may find an idea or two to look into.
Bill DeShurko 