On Thursday HorsesMouth.com published an article I wrote on the market’s mixed signals. Despite most predictions to the contrary, interest rates have declined fairly substantially this year. Falling interest rates are usually a sign of (fear) of a slowing economy. The stock market however, despite a short pause in March, has pretty much marched upward in a surprisingly consistent fashion. The stock market is considered a leading indicator for the economy. Therefore a rising stock market portends an improving economy. So which is right?
In the article I reviewed the economic data for May and other indicators. There is no question the economy continues to show improvement, albeit at an unsatisfying slow pace. I believe the bond market sell off is anticipating a rise in short term interest rates IF the Fed were to put an end to their zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). Although the economy shows modest growth, the growth is seen (by the bond market) as too modest to continue if interest rates were to rise.
For investors we continue with our theme of market seasonality. While our portfolios are fully invested, we are in conservative stock holdings pretty much across the board. Focusing on large U.S. stocks and especially dividend payers. It is a strategy that is working well so for this year.
As a side note, I recently talked to a prospect who said the “competition” criticized my recommendations because I did not recommend being “diversified” by holding foreign stocks and bonds (via a mutual fund). After 28 years of doing this, I still don’t get while some people insist on putting money at risk just to be “diversified.” Europe just went to a NEGATIVE interest rate policy. This is extreme, panic type policy. China is in the midst of a slow down as the government cracks down on corruption and lending practices. My suggestion is to keep your money at home, in the U.S. for now. There will be a time to invest overseas, but I will only do so when the risks are much lower.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This article contains forward looking statements based solely on the author’s opinions.